Iran knows if it launches missiles against neighbours, it will be the end of the regime, says analyst
Dubai: The posting of a video by an Iranian media outlet close to the hard-line Revolutionary Guard, threatening Gulf states with missile attacks, reflects “dangerous and worrisome” behaviour, Arab analysts have said.
The video tweeted and later deleted by the semi-official Fars news agency comes days after the militant attack on a military parade in Iran. Analysts believe the intention is to divert attention from the impact of the US economic sanctions against Iran, and is meant for local public consumption.
“Iran is too weak to attack any Gulf state,” Ahmad Kamel Al Buhairi, a researcher on Iranian affairs at the Cairo-based Al Ahram Strategic Studies Centre said.
“No one in Iran – from the Supreme Leader to the lowest ranking officer at of the Revolutionary Guard will dare to push the button to launch a missile against any neighbouring country,” Al Buhairi said. “Because this will be the day the Iranian regime signs its death sentence.”
“Publishing such threats … shows the Iranian leadership’s behaviour, which is dangerous and worrisome,” Khattar Abu Diab from the Paris-based Council on Geopolitics and Perspectives told Gulf News.
“I don’t think the Iranian regime will dare carry out its threats,” he said.
Abu Diab, and other political scientists said Tuesday’s threats are meant to send a message that the regime is strong.
For long, Iran has been resorting to threats as a way of life, said Riyad Qahwaji, CEO of Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
The regime picked “a [semi]-official media to indulge in some sort of psychological warfare and give the Iranian street the impression it is about to take action,” said Qahwaji. Not having this on the official media outlets gives the regime plausible deniability.